We got this question from a client of ours earlier this week in response to the stock market’s wild market ride. It is a great question!
The quick and easy answer is “No, it shouldn’t.” And we could pretty much stop right there. But if you know us, you know we love to get into the explanation! So here it goes…
Let’s go back to the very start, with “What is a dividend?” A dividend is a payment of a portion of a company’s earnings distributed to the company’s shareholders. Dividends typically are paid in cash, and the company’s board of directors decides the amount distributed.
Now the next question would be, “What causes a company to raise or lower their dividend?” The answer is cash flow. It all comes down to earnings and profitability and how much money the company has remaining after paying for all the things that keep it running, such as salaries, research and development, marketing, etc. After those expenses and the dividend payment, the remaining profits go back into the company.
When a company pays a dividend, their board is essentially deciding that reinvesting all of the company’s profits to achieve further growth will not offer the shareholders as high a return as a dividend distribution. That said, companies offer a dividend as extra enticement for investors to buy their stock. Moreover, a steadily increasing dividend payout is an indication of a successful company.
Therefore, it stands to reason that a company’s steady or increasing profitability will typically lead to steady or increasing dividend rates, and a decline in profitability will lead to that company reducing or eliminating their dividends. Most U.S. companies are loathe to reduce their dividend rates because it signals to investors that their profits are lagging, which results in their stock price getting pummeled. And that is not a good thing for their company’s board or management.
The final long-winded answer: You will often see companies cut their dividends when there is a severe economic crash, but not in reaction to a market correction. Since dividends are not a function of stock price, market fluctuations and stock price fluctuations on their own do not affect a company’s dividend payments.
If you have a question, feel free to send it our way!
(Here is an interesting tidbit: the term “dividend” comes from the Latin word dividendum, which means “thing to be divided.” With a dividend, companies are dividing their profits up among shareholders.)
On Recent Market Volatility. An Open Letter to Our Clients.
And you thought we saw volatility last Thursday and Friday?…
It is normal to for you to wonder how all of this volatility affects your wealth. As we are hearing it, China seems to be the straw that broke the camel’s market’s back. Other forces added to the weight, including uncertainty over the timing of the Fed raising interest rates and the Greek debacle. However, we do not think that any of these things are cause for long-term concern regarding your portfolios. If you are feeling some stress because of the recent market volatility, remember:
Stock markets are supposed to go up and down
There have been over a dozen market pullbacks of at least 5% since March 2009, so this isn’t unprecedented. We all realize that stocks are inherently volatile investments, and we must accept the fact in order to earn the expected higher long-term returns. You have all undoubtedly heard us preach asset allocation and the importance of having a long-term, strategic view. Your portfolio is invested in a model based on your unique financial and personal circumstances. It is important to take the long view and realize that it is typical for bull markets to have corrections of 5% – 10%.
Market timing is a sucker’s game
None of us has a crystal ball. Not even the traders and speculators on TV that want you to think that they do. Luckily, you do not need a crystal ball to be a successful investor. In times like these, it is best to keep your cool and stay invested. Studies consistently show that missing just a few days of strong returns can affect your performance dramatically. It is important to stay disciplined and not make short-term trading decisions based on fear and emotion.
Your portfolios are properly diversified
This is our most important point. As we mentioned, we have invested your money in an appropriate allocation for you, so those investments that have not done as well as the stock indices the past couple of years (looking at you, bonds) should help cushion the blow from this market correction. That is exactly why they are in there. Having a mix of different types of investments is like having shocks and struts on your car – these things provide a smoother and more stable ride for your portfolio. When the stock markets are going great, these other investments do cause drag, but we do not invest to beat an arbitrary benchmark, rather we invest to help you achieve your financial goals with the least amount of risk possible.
The things that are causing this correction are just noise
China is slowing. So what? To say that their growth rate is slowing is admitting that they are still growing, just at a slower pace. Did anyone really expect them to grow at 20% per year forever? Moreover, if you look at it from a numbers perspective, exports to China only account for 0.7% of U.S. GDP.
The Yuan is falling. Just a few months ago weren’t the talking heads lamenting the thought of the Chinese yuan as the world’s new reserve currency? Now that talking heads who brought you that idea are being proven wrong, they want you to believe that this is supposed to be bad, too? Which is it that we are supposed to fear again? We wrote a blog piece about this last week, so we won’t go into great detail rehashing it here, but our general reaction is, again: So what?
The Fed is going to raise interest rates. (Eventually.) It was not that long ago that tapering was supposed to bring financial ruin to us all… Look, we all know that the Fed is eventually going to raise rates. We can argue about the timing, but whenever it finally happens and the federal funds rate increases by 0.25%, does anyone really think that will keep Apple from introducing the latest re-iteration of their products? Or keep anyone from buying them?
We realize that we have been having some fun with things that may cause some of you serious concern. What we do not take lightly as your advisors and financial fiduciaries is the amount of concern and care we place on your financial well-being. In times like these, it is important to stay calm and avoid making hasty decisions that could harm you financially. We will continue to monitor your portfolios with vigilance, and as always, please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.
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