Category Archives: Psychology

Why do smart people use financial advisors?

What is the real value to hiring a financial advisor, and who uses them?  What is the value proposition?  What makes one car with four doors and wheels worth $300,000 and other $30,000?  Although we might have an answer, the answer differs from person to person.

People use financial advisors for many reasons.  Some use them because they absolutely need them, others because they want them. Paying a fee for advice and guidance to a professional who uses the tools and tactics of a CFP™ (CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™) and an experienced Registered Investment Advisor who is a fiduciary can add meaningful value compared to what the average investor experiences.

Many middle-class investors are anxious about their finances and are not interested in learning the details of managing their money.  This anxiety often results with money left on the sidelines because they don’t know what to do or are afraid of making mistakes. That means earning a fraction of 1% at the bank when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up over 25% in the last 12 months.

There are others who are interested in learning about investing and may want to hire an advisor to “look over their shoulder.”  They want to hire an “investment coach.”

A third category are people who hire professionals because they are busy doing things that are more important to them: building a career or a business, being with family, or living an active retirement.  They hire an expert to manage their money the same way they hire a lawyer for estate planning, a CPA to prepare their taxes, and a doctor to keep them healthy.

A fourth category is people who were making their own investment decisions but ended up making a huge financial mistake.  This leads me to a story about a really smart, highly paid high tech executive who is very knowledgeable about investing; but he hired an advisor:

It’s not because he lacks the knowledge or interest, obviously. Rather, he figured out he had behavioral blind spots and understood he was at risk of great financial loss. He’s paying someone just to take that risk off his plate.

Determining your goals, controlling risk, managing portfolios well, and knowing your limitations – knowing you have “blind spots” – has led many smart people to hire an advisor.

Vanguard, the hugely successful purveyor or no-load mutual funds (that appeal to do-it-yourselfers) estimates that a financial advisor is worth about 3% net in annual returns.  They attribute this to the seven services that a good advisor provides:

  1. Creating a suitable asset allocation strategy.
  2. Cost-effective implementation.
  3. Rebalancing
  4. Behavioral coaching
  5. Asset location
  6. Spending strategy.
  7. Total return versus income investing.

If you have an advisor but he is not meeting your objectives, ask us for a second opinion.  If you don’t have an advisor but may want one, we offer a free one-hour consultation to see if we are compatible.

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A good Registered Investment Advisor is a “Life Coach.”

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People who are not familiar with Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) too often view them as stock brokers.  They are not; they are held to a higher standard and are focused on the client, not the money.  RIAs are trusted advisors who put their clients ahead of themselves.    They are fiduciaries that are skilled in the art making good financial decisions.

Younger professionals who are building careers would do well to find an RIA as their financial guru, a “Life Coach.”  It takes time, experience and a high level of expertise to manage money well.  The young lack that expertise but have the biggest advantage of all: time.  They are in a perfect position to build wealth with the least amount of effort if they can lean on experts who can show them how to navigate the risky ocean of investing.  Just as important, they need a wise guide who can advise them on managing their income.  Too many people, even those with six figure salaries, live paycheck to paycheck.  Knowing what to spend and how to save is the role of the advisor.

This is very important for the independent professional – the doctor or lawyer.  Focused on building a practice, they need someone to advise them on managing their money wisely.

For the business owner, the entrepreneur, it’s even more important.  There is no career track and the challenge of building a business often results in poor money management.  Excessive debt can lead to bankruptcy, a common result in many industries that depend on debt financing.  A good advisor can help the business owner create a personal portfolio that’s independent of his business.  At the same time he can advise the owner the best way of financing his growth.

Once the business is established the owner needs guidance setting up retirement and benefit plans for himself and his employees.  This all part of the RIA’s skill set. And finally, as the business matures and the owner starts thinking of retirement, the advisor provides the guidance to transition the individual and his family to life beyond work.

That’s the point at which the coach gets the pleasure of knowing he’s done a good job as part of a winning team.

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Dow Breaks the 20,000 level

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another milestone today.  The Dow broke through 20,000 as traders cheered.

For a little perspective here’s how the market reached past milestones.

dow-jones-milestones

A few points to remember.  There have been long periods when the Dow treated investors like riders on a roller coaster:  lots of swoops and slides only to end up where you began.  During those periods people made money with astute stock selection, not by buying “Mr. Market.”  We believe that those times will come again.

  • It took from 1929 to 1954 for the Dow to regain its previous high.
  • It took ten years – from 1972 to 1982 – for the market to break through the 1,000 level.

Keep in mind that the 1,000 point move in the Dow at the current level is just a little over 5% and is therefore not nearly as meaningful as a move from 1,000 to 2,000, a move of 100%.  But it’s still an important psychological barrier that had to be broken for the market to move higher.

The move makes sense from both a technical and fundamental standpoint.  Both retail and institutional investors are positive, as we have noted in the past.

The incoming Trump administration has moved with amazing speed to demonstrate their desire to increase the level of economic growth as a way of increasing job and wage growth.  They have expressed policy preferences for lower taxes, reducing regulations that stifle business development, and have been encouraging companies to build their businesses in the United States rather than overseas.

The trend is clear.  The only thing that could derail this train is a massive change in consumer sentiment or an external factor such as a war or other calamity.  The latter are known as “Black Swan” events and we must always keep in mind that they can occur.  We manage our portfolios with those possibilities in mind.

Eventually, valuations will get too high and the inevitable correction will occur.  In the meantime, we enjoy the ride while keeping a close eye on events.

The Financial Planner as a Healer

Money is a significant source of stress for most people.  In many studies, it ranks above issues such as work, children and family.  Chronic financial stress is often the leading cause of family break-ups.

Chronic stress is also associated with all sorts of health problems, psychological problems, marriage conflicts and behavior issues such as smoking, excessive drinking, depression and overeating.

Men and women under stress have often relied on medical and mental health professionals.  However, financial planners are uniquely positioned to help people address what is likely the number one source of stress in their lives – their relationship with money.  Dealing with these issues head-on with a financial planner can lead to improved emotional and physical health, an improvement of work-related problems and improved relationships with family and friends.

A competent and caring financial planner does a great deal more than manage investments or create a financial roadmap.  He listens and empathizes with the conflicting issues that people face when attempting to manage their personal finances.

Discussing the issues that cause worry with a financial planner can lead to setting realistic goals, analyzing alternatives, prioritizing actions and implementing an easy-to-follow plan.  Just as important, it allows the client and the planner to review progress on a regular basis.

As a result the client gets a sense of personal control over his or her finances.  Someone who is in control of their life has much lower stress than someone who feels that events and outside agents control them.

For a relationship between a client and a financial planner to work well together, they must have shared views and expectations of financial planning, financial markets, investment philosophy, and managing risk.  An initial meeting between a client and a financial planner should establish a comfort level and determine whether the planner is actually interested in the client, or just the client’s money.

The planner’s goal should be to help their clients organize their financial affairs, and to discuss the client’s past, present and future – including death.  The planner should create a level of trust that allows him to keep the client from self-injury, which often results from fear surrounding money.  The financial planner should provide a sort of reality check to the client, reducing both excessive pessimism and irrational optimism.  A client should feel able to discuss money honestly and openly with their planner without a fear of judgment.

In many ways, a financial advisor can be the confidant to whom you can take your financial concerns … and make it all better.

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Is the Trump Rally Real?

Our favorite financial economist, Brian Wesbury, has some hopeful thoughts about the market following the election.

Since the presidential election, the S&P 500 is up 8.4%, the Russell 2000, a small cap stock index, is up almost 20% and the Dow is closing in on 20,000. Financial stocks have surged.

This “Trump Rally,” just like the entire 2009-2016 bull market – which pushed up stocks more than 200% – has its detractors. We heard it over and over in the past eight years, and now we are hearing it again – “the market has moved too far, too fast.”

Wesbury thinks that there’s a real reason for the market’s rise.  “Hope and faith” has nothing to do with it.  His model indicated that the market was undervalued before the election, and he has attributed that to government policies.

We believe the reason it was undervalued was because government policy was constantly making it more difficult for free markets to operate. Higher taxes, higher spending and more regulation increase the risks to future growth. It’s why we have had a Plow Horse economy. At the least, these policies are now stopped, at best, they will be reversed.

He expects that a Trump administration will be much more market friendly.  At the current rate, perhaps he will soon begin talking about a “Race Horse” economy.

Of course, like any prediction about the future, events can get in the way.  That’s why we are always cautious and focused on protecting our client’s investment assets while participating in the market’s advance within the constraints of prudence, knowing that our vision of the future is never guaranteed.

In the meantime, we are enjoying the ride and are getting ready for a very Merry Christmas.

A reader asks: what’s the difference between risk tolerance and risk capacity?

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That’s an interesting question and it depends on who you ask.  The investment industry measures risk in terms of volatility, taking the opportunity for both gains and losses into consideration.

I will answer with a focus on losses rather than gains because, for most people, risk implies the chance that they will lose money rather than make money.

 Risk tolerance is your emotional capacity to withstand losses without panicking.  For example, during the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009 people with a low or modest risk tolerance, who saw their investment portfolios decline by as much as 50% because they were heavily invested in stocks, sold out and did not recoup their losses when the stock market recovered.  Their risk tolerance was not aligned with the risk they were taking in their portfolio.  In many cases they were not aware of the risks they were taking because they had been lulled by the gains they had experienced in the prior years.

People who bought homes in the run-up to the real estate crash of 2008 were unaware of the risk they were taking because they believed that home prices would always go up.  When prices plunged they were left with properties that were worth less than the mortgage they owed.

This exposed them to the issue of risk capacity.

Risk capacity is your ability to absorb losses without affecting your lifestyle.  The wealthy have the capacity to lose thousands, millions, or even billions of dollars.  Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, recently lost $6 billion dollars in a few hours when his company’s stock dropped dramatically.  Despite this loss,  he was still worth over $56 billion.    His risk capacity is orders of magnitude greater than most people’s net worth.

The unlucky home buyer who bought a house at an inflated price using creative financing found out that the losses they faced exceeded their net worth.  As a result many people lost their homes and many declared bankruptcy.

There are some new tools available to measure your risk tolerance and determine how well your portfolio is aligned with your risk number.  Click HERE to get your risk number.

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Diversification and Emerging Markets

A well-diversified portfolio typically includes emerging markets as one of its components.  “Emerging markets” is a generic term to identify those countries whose economies are developed, but still smaller than those of the world’s superpowers (i.e., USA, Europe, Japan).

To professional investors, a well-diversified portfolio includes many asset classes, not just the most obvious: U.S. Stocks (the S&P 500) and a U.S. bond fund.

The following illustration is a great illustration of the relative performance of some of the major asset classes.

callan-periodic-table-of-investment-returns

Here we have ten key indices ranked by performance over a 20-year period.  The best-performing index for each year is at the top of each column, and the worst is at the bottom.

It is natural for investors to want to own the stock, or the asset class that is currently “hot.”  It’s called the Bandwagon Effect and it’s one of the reasons that the average investor typically underperforms.  The top performer in any one year isn’t always the best performer the next year.

A successful investment strategy is to:

  • Maintain a portfolio diversified among asset classes,
  • Stick to an appropriate asset allocation for your particular goals and objectives,
  • Rebalance your portfolio once or twice a year to keep your asset allocation in line, essentially forcing you to sell what’s become expensive and buy what’s become cheap.

In other words, re-balance your portfolio regularly and you will benefit from the fact that some assets become cheap and provide buying opportunities and some become expensive and we should take some profits.

Which brings us to emerging markets, which have been a drag on the performance of diversified portfolios for several years.

“It was a summer of love for investment in emerging markets,” according to the latest MSCI Research Spotlight.  For example, Brazil, Taiwan, South Africa and India have all been big winners, MSCI said.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index ended August up for the year 15 percent compared to a loss of 20 percent the prior year.

“We are seeing very strong performance,” Martin Small, head of U.S. i-Shares BlackRock, told the conference.

Emerging market equities “have outperformed the S&P so far this year by more than 800 basis points and the broader universe of developed markets by almost 1,000 basis points,” according to the October BlackRock report, “Is the Rally in Emerging Markets Sustainable?” The report said EM outperformance “is likely to continue into 2017.”

For investors who have included emerging markets in their portfolios, their patience and discipline is being rewarded this year.  For those who want to have a portfolio that’s properly diversified but don’t have the expertise to do it themselves, give us a call.

 

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Ex-NFL player, Mega Millions winner press $7.8M claims against Morgan Stanley

What do sports super-stars and lottery winners have in common?  Both are in financial danger.

That’s a strange thing to say about people who are often multi-millionaires.

The problem is that neither the talented athlete nor the lottery winner is usually any good at managing money.  That’s a harsh judgment to make but too many star athletes and lottery winners end up broke.  They end up broke for many of the same reasons:

  • They believe that the financial windfall they have received is inexhaustible.
  • They attract too many groupies and hangers-on who are after their money.
  • They spend the money they have received instead of investing it for their old age.
  • The money they do invest is often lost because of poor, or dishonest, advice.

From Financial Planning magazine:

Former NFL cornerback Asante Samuel and Mega Millions lottery winner James Groves are jointly seeking $7.8 million in damages against Morgan Stanley related to investment recommendations made by a now-barred broker, according to regulatory filings….

Samuel and Groves filed their claims in FINRA arbitration in July, according to a copy of Parthemer’s CRD. From 2003 to 2013, Samuel played for several NFL teams, including the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. Groves won $168 million in the Mega Millions lottery in 2009.

In this case, Asante Samuel was persuaded to buy a night club, probably hoping to capitalize on his fame as a football player.  It’s fairly common for professional athletes to open restaurants or night clubs.  The problem is that even for professional restauranteurs, the failure rate is shockingly high, and athletes don’t have the training or time to run these businesses.

The story of many lottery winners is one example of ruined lives after another.   Bud Post’s story is not unusual.

When William “Bud” Post won $16.2 million in a 1988 lottery, one of the first things he did was try to please his family, according to this Bankrate article.

Unfortunately, his kin was of the unfriendly sort. Post’s brother hired a hit man to kill him, hoping to inherit some money. Other family members persuaded him to invest in two businesses that ultimately failed. Post’s ex-girlfriend sued him for some of the winnings. Post himself was thrown in jail for firing a gun at a bill collector.

Over time, Post accumulated so much debt that he had to declare bankruptcy. He now relies on Social Security for income. “Lotteries don’t mean (anything) to me,” he is quoted as saying—after he lost all his money.

Is there no hope for professional athletes and lottery winners?  Yes, but it requires them to know their limitations, which may include hiring professional help before they begin spending their new-found wealth.

If you’re a sports star or lottery winner who would like to retire rich, and you want to have someone to talk to about the way you can fend off the vultures that your wealth and fame attract, contact us.  You don’t want to spend your time in court trying to get back what you lost.

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BREXIT! A Rational View

Today’s markets are roiled by the decision of voters in Great Britain to exit the European Union (EU), which has been dubbed “BREXIT.”  As with most events in the investment world, there are people out there who make a living scaring you.  Rather than panic, we recommend you step back and think rationally what this means.

KEEP CALM

First, why did the British people vote to leave the EU despite the unified opposition of both of Great Britain’s major political parties?  The answer is that more than half of their voting public was tired of being told what to do by un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels (the capitol of the EU).  The people wanted to have a say in how they were going to be governed.  In effect, BREXIT was a revolt of the masses against the classes.

Polls prior to the election indicated that the vote would be against BREXIT, opting to stay in the EU.  The result surprised much of the big money which led to today’s panicked selling at the open.

As we prepare these comments we see a small rebound from the opening bell but the day is young and we don’t know where we’ll be at the end.  But if we step back, we think that Brian Wesbury of First Trust has some worthwhile thoughts:

The bottom line is that investors should ignore scare stories about what would happen if BREXIT wins.  Great Britain runs consistent trade deficits with the rest of Europe. Regardless of what foreign leaders say before the vote, if the British vote to leave, the rest of the EU is going to chase them to the ends of the earth.  No way will they allow one of their biggest export markets to become more distant.  They will beg the UK to sign a free trade deal.  In addition, and this is actually great economic news, it would free the US and UK to sign a free trade deal that the EU is now holding up.

Any market volatility would be short-lived and any swing to the downside would be a buying opportunity.  BREXIT is not a reason to sell.  In fact, freedom is a good thing

Have questions?  Ask us.

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How QB Mark Sanchez was sacked by a financial adviser

NFL quarterback Mark Sanchez was allegedly cheated out of about $33 million by Ash Narayan, who worked for RGT Capital Management for nearly 20 years. Image: Associated Press

This article from Financial Planning caught my eye:

NFL quarterback Mark Sanchez and major league baseball pitchers Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt were allegedly cheated out of about $33 million by Ash Narayan, who worked for RGT Capital Management for nearly 20 years, the SEC has charged.

Narayan “secretly siphon[ed] millions of dollars from accounts he managed for professional athletes,” the SEC alleged.

When you hire someone to manage your money you trust that they will serve you honestly and ethically.  Unfortunately, that trust is sometimes betrayed, which gives the financial services industry a black eye.

One of the things that we can pass along to our friends and clients are lessons learned.  In this particular case, Narayan put a lot of his clients’ money into a struggling internet firm in which he had a financial stake.  That is a huge conflict of interest and should be a red flag for anyone who hires a financial advisor.

Sanchez hired Narayan partly because they attended the same church.  We have seen several instances where people entrusted their money with advisors who were part of the church, the club or another affinity group without checking further.  When hiring an advisor you cannot assume that people close to you have your best interest at heart.  Even family members will take advantage of other members of the family.

If you want a brochure that tells you how to choose a financial advisor, contact us.  We are fiduciaries.

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