And you thought we saw volatility last Thursday and Friday?…
It is normal to for you to wonder how all of this volatility affects your wealth. As we are hearing it, China seems to be the straw that broke the camel’s market’s back. Other forces added to the weight, including uncertainty over the timing of the Fed raising interest rates and the Greek debacle. However, we do not think that any of these things are cause for long-term concern regarding your portfolios. If you are feeling some stress because of the recent market volatility, remember:
Stock markets are supposed to go up and down
There have been over a dozen market pullbacks of at least 5% since March 2009, so this isn’t unprecedented. We all realize that stocks are inherently volatile investments, and we must accept the fact in order to earn the expected higher long-term returns. You have all undoubtedly heard us preach asset allocation and the importance of having a long-term, strategic view. Your portfolio is invested in a model based on your unique financial and personal circumstances. It is important to take the long view and realize that it is typical for bull markets to have corrections of 5% – 10%.
Market timing is a sucker’s game
None of us has a crystal ball. Not even the traders and speculators on TV that want you to think that they do. Luckily, you do not need a crystal ball to be a successful investor. In times like these, it is best to keep your cool and stay invested. Studies consistently show that missing just a few days of strong returns can affect your performance dramatically. It is important to stay disciplined and not make short-term trading decisions based on fear and emotion.
Your portfolios are properly diversified
This is our most important point. As we mentioned, we have invested your money in an appropriate allocation for you, so those investments that have not done as well as the stock indices the past couple of years (looking at you, bonds) should help cushion the blow from this market correction. That is exactly why they are in there. Having a mix of different types of investments is like having shocks and struts on your car – these things provide a smoother and more stable ride for your portfolio. When the stock markets are going great, these other investments do cause drag, but we do not invest to beat an arbitrary benchmark, rather we invest to help you achieve your financial goals with the least amount of risk possible.
The things that are causing this correction are just noise
China is slowing. So what? To say that their growth rate is slowing is admitting that they are still growing, just at a slower pace. Did anyone really expect them to grow at 20% per year forever? Moreover, if you look at it from a numbers perspective, exports to China only account for 0.7% of U.S. GDP.
The Yuan is falling. Just a few months ago weren’t the talking heads lamenting the thought of the Chinese yuan as the world’s new reserve currency? Now that talking heads who brought you that idea are being proven wrong, they want you to believe that this is supposed to be bad, too? Which is it that we are supposed to fear again? We wrote a blog piece about this last week, so we won’t go into great detail rehashing it here, but our general reaction is, again: So what?
The Fed is going to raise interest rates. (Eventually.) It was not that long ago that tapering was supposed to bring financial ruin to us all… Look, we all know that the Fed is eventually going to raise rates. We can argue about the timing, but whenever it finally happens and the federal funds rate increases by 0.25%, does anyone really think that will keep Apple from introducing the latest re-iteration of their products? Or keep anyone from buying them?
We realize that we have been having some fun with things that may cause some of you serious concern. What we do not take lightly as your advisors and financial fiduciaries is the amount of concern and care we place on your financial well-being. In times like these, it is important to stay calm and avoid making hasty decisions that could harm you financially. We will continue to monitor your portfolios with vigilance, and as always, please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.