Why Re-balance Portfolios?

The market rarely rings a bell when it’s time to buy or sell.  The time to buy is often the time when people are most afraid.  The time to sell is often when people are most optimistic about the market.  This was true in 2000 and 2009.

Rather than trying to guess or consult your crystal ball, portfolio re-balancing lets your portfolio tell you when to sell and when to buy.

You begin by creating a diversified portfolio that reflects your risk tolerance.  A “Moderate” investor, neither too aggressive or too conservative, may have a portfolio that contains 40 – 60% stocks and a corresponding ratio of bonds.

Checking your portfolio periodically will tell you when you begin to deviate from your chosen asset allocation.  During “Bull” markets your stock portfolio will begin to grow out of the range you have set for it, triggering a need to re-balance back to your preferred allocation.  During “Bear” markets your fixed income portfolio will grow out of its range.  Re-balancing at this point will cause you to add to the equity portion of your portfolio even as emotion urges you in the opposite direction.

If properly implemented and regularly applied, this will allow you to do what that old Wall Street sage tells you is the way to make money: “Buy Low and Sell High.”

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Diversification and Emerging Markets

A well-diversified portfolio typically includes emerging markets as one of its components.  “Emerging markets” is a generic term to identify those countries whose economies are developed, but still smaller than those of the world’s superpowers (i.e., USA, Europe, Japan).

To professional investors, a well-diversified portfolio includes many asset classes, not just the most obvious: U.S. Stocks (the S&P 500) and a U.S. bond fund.

The following illustration is a great illustration of the relative performance of some of the major asset classes.


Here we have ten key indices ranked by performance over a 20-year period.  The best-performing index for each year is at the top of each column, and the worst is at the bottom.

It is natural for investors to want to own the stock, or the asset class that is currently “hot.”  It’s called the Bandwagon Effect and it’s one of the reasons that the average investor typically underperforms.  The top performer in any one year isn’t always the best performer the next year.

A successful investment strategy is to:

  • Maintain a portfolio diversified among asset classes,
  • Stick to an appropriate asset allocation for your particular goals and objectives,
  • Rebalance your portfolio once or twice a year to keep your asset allocation in line, essentially forcing you to sell what’s become expensive and buy what’s become cheap.

In other words, re-balance your portfolio regularly and you will benefit from the fact that some assets become cheap and provide buying opportunities and some become expensive and we should take some profits.

Which brings us to emerging markets, which have been a drag on the performance of diversified portfolios for several years.

“It was a summer of love for investment in emerging markets,” according to the latest MSCI Research Spotlight.  For example, Brazil, Taiwan, South Africa and India have all been big winners, MSCI said.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index ended August up for the year 15 percent compared to a loss of 20 percent the prior year.

“We are seeing very strong performance,” Martin Small, head of U.S. i-Shares BlackRock, told the conference.

Emerging market equities “have outperformed the S&P so far this year by more than 800 basis points and the broader universe of developed markets by almost 1,000 basis points,” according to the October BlackRock report, “Is the Rally in Emerging Markets Sustainable?” The report said EM outperformance “is likely to continue into 2017.”

For investors who have included emerging markets in their portfolios, their patience and discipline is being rewarded this year.  For those who want to have a portfolio that’s properly diversified but don’t have the expertise to do it themselves, give us a call.


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The Public Pension Crisis

Government workers at all levels are likely to have pension plans but there is a big question about the plans’ ability to pay.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 92% percent of full-time government employees like teachers and police officers are eligible for pensions, known as “defined benefit plans.”

According to the BLS about 22% of workers in the private sector have pensions, down from 42% in 1990.  In the private sector, retirement plans are much more likely to be 401(k) plans, known as “defined contribution plans.”  Part of the reason for this is that some large companies, like General Motors, accrued huge pension liabilities over the years that they were unable to pay.

Since the Federal Government can print money, federal employees are not worried.  However, states and municipalities depend on their tax base and can’t print money.  That’s where the problem comes in.  Some estimates claim the unfunded liability of public pension plans exceeded $3 trillion dollars.

According to Governing, the city of Chicago’s has an unfunded pension liability of almost $20,000 per capita.  Other cities are somewhat better off, but no big city has a fully funded pension account.  Dallas and Denver, for example are on the hook for between $8,000 and $9,000 per resident.  It’s difficult to even measure the amount of indebtedness because political leaders really don’t want to discuss it.

The problem has been exacerbated by rate-of-return assumptions that are unrealistic.  Most pension funds assume that their assets will grow at rates of seven to eight percent per year indefinitely, a virtual impossibility in this age of low interest rates and sluggish growth.

What does that mean for public employees?   They may want to cast a wary eye on Puerto Rico and some cities in California who have gone into default.  As a wise man once said, “something that can’t go on forever, won’t.”  A little planning ahead won’t hurt.

Whether you are a public employee or work in the private sector we welcome your inquiries.



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Retirement statistics

  • 65 – The age at which the average American expects to retire, up from 63 in 2002.
  • 26 – Percentage of baby boomers who expect to retire at age 70 or later.
  • $265,000 – the estimated amount a couple, both age 65, should expect to spend on health care.
  • 22 – Percentage of couples who factor health care costs into retirement.
  • 30 – Percentage of adults born in the 1940s and 1950s who have traditional pension plans.
  • 11 – Percentage of adults born in the 1980s who are expected to have a traditional pension plan.
  • 60 – Percentage of medical expenses that Medicare by itself covers.

If some of these statistics don’t scare you read them again.

For others, we may be able to help.

And read the first three chapters of Before I Go.


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Questioner asks: “Should I roll my SEP IRA into a regular IRA or a Roth IRA?”

There are two issues to consider in answering this question.

  1. If you roll a SEP IRA into a regular or rollover IRA, assuming you do it right, there are no taxes to pay and your money will continue to grow tax deferred until you begin taking withdrawals.  At that point you will pay income tax on the withdrawals.
  2. If you decide to roll it into a Roth IRA you will owe income tax on the amount rolled over.  However, the money will then grow tax free since there will be no taxes to pay when you begin taking withdrawals.

If you roll your SEP into a Roth, be sure to know ahead of time how much you will have to pay in taxes and try to avoid using some of the rollover money to pay the tax because it could trigger an early withdrawal penalty – if you are under 59 1/2 .

It’s up to you to decide which option works best for you.  If you are unsure, you may want to consult a financial planner who can model the two strategies and show you which one works better for you.

As always, check with a financial professional who specializes in retirement planning before making a move and check with your accountant or tax advisor to make sure that you know the tax consequences of your decision.

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Inflation Ready to Rise

Brian Wesbury is one of our favorite economists and market commentators.  One of the key indicators the Federal Reserve is watching is the rate of inflation.  The Fed wants the “core” inflation rate to be 2%.  We are not in favor of any inflation at all, but we are not the Federal Reserve so it’s worth looking at the numbers they are looking at.


The consumer price index is up only 1.1% in the past year. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE – is up 1.0%. The US doesn’t face deflation, but the overall inflation statistics are, and have remained, low.

But the money supply is accelerating, the jobs market looks very tight, and underneath the calm exterior, there are some green shoots of inflationary pressure.

The “core” measures of inflation, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are not nearly as contained as overall measures. And before you say everyone has to eat and drive, realize that both food an energy prices are volatile and global in nature. They don’t always reveal true underlying price pressures.

The ‘core” CPI is up 2.3% in the past year, while the “core” PCE index is up 1.7%. In other words, a drop in food and energy prices has been masking underlying inflation that is already at or near the Fed’s 2% target. Energy prices have stabilized and food prices will rise again. As a result, soon, overall inflation measures are going to be running higher than the Fed’s target.

Housing costs are up 3.4% in the past year and medical care costs are up 3.4%.

Although some (usually Keynesian) analysts are waiting for much higher growth in wages before they fear rising inflation, the fact is that wage growth is already accelerating. Average hourly earnings are up 2.6% in the past year versus a 2.0% gain only two years ago. Moreover, as a paper earlier this year from the San Francisco Fed pointed out, this acceleration is happening in spite of the retirement of relatively high-wage Baby Boomers and the re-entry into the labor force of workers with below-average skills.

But we don’t think wages cause inflation – money does. Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. The Fed has held short-term interest rates at artificially low levels for the past several years while it’s expanded its balance sheet to unprecedented levels. Monetary policy has been loose.

… M2 has expanded at an 8.6% annualized rate. More money brings more inflation.

None of this means hyperinflation is finally on its way. In the past, inflation has taken time to build, leaving room for the Fed to respond by shrinking its balance sheet and getting back to a more normal monetary policy.

In the meantime, this will be the last year in a long while, where we see inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Look for both higher inflation and interest rates in the years ahead.

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The financial risks of dementia

dementia-symptoms-and-brain changes

Dementia covers a broad range of mental diseases that cause a gradual decrease in the ability to think and remember.  It often affects a person’s daily functioning and is different from the decline in cognitive abilities that are the usual effects of aging.  The most common type of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease.

About one in ten people get dementia.  It becomes more common with age and it’s estimated that about half of those over age 85 suffer from it in some degree.

As the disease progresses, most people with dementia require a certain amount of skilled care.  Eventually the family will not be able to provide the 24 hour services that the patient requires and they will be placed in a facility designed to provide that care.

According to the NY Times:

On average, the out-of-pocket cost for a patient with dementia was $61,522 — more than 80 percent higher than the cost for someone with heart disease or cancer. The reason is that dementia patients need caregivers to watch them, help with basic activities like eating, dressing and bathing, and provide constant supervision to make sure they do not wander off or harm themselves. None of those costs were covered by Medicare.

For many families, the cost of caring for a dementia patient often “consumed almost their entire household wealth,” said Dr. Amy S. Kelley, a geriatrician at Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai in New York and the lead author of a paper published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

As people age their cognitive abilities deteriorate.  Even before they begin to suffer the effects of dementia, they may become forgetful or lose the ability to focus on their finances.  Obtaining the services of a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) well before this happens – a fiduciary that puts his clients’ interests first – is vital.  And, as people prepare retirement plans, the cost of dementia treatment and care should be one of the things for which they plan.

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Do you have questions about retirement? You’re not alone.

Charles Schwab recently conducted a survey of people saving for retirement and found that saving enough for retirement was the single most force of financial stress in their lives; … greater than job security, credit card debt or meeting monthly expenses.

A new survey from Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. finds that saving enough money for a comfortable retirement is the most common financial stress inducer for people of all ages. The survey also reveals that most people view the 401(k) as a “must-have” workplace benefit and believe they would benefit from professional saving, investment and financial guidance.

Most people who come to see us have concluded that they need professional help.  They have some basic questions and want answers without a sales pitch.


They know that they need to save for retirement but don’t know exactly how.

  • The want to know how much they need to save.
  • They want to know how they should be investing their 401(k) plans.
  • They wonder if they should put money into a Regular IRA or a Roth IRA.
  • They know they need to invest in the market but are concerned about making mistakes.

Only 43 percent know how much money they may need for a comfortable retirement, which is significantly lower than awareness of other important targets in their lives, including ideal credit score (91%), weight (90%) or blood pressure (77%).

“With so many competing obligations and priorities, it’s natural for people to worry about whether they’re saving enough for retirement;” said Steve Anderson, president, Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. “Roughly nine out of ten respondents told us they are relying mostly on themselves to finance retirement. It’s encouraging to see people of all ages taking responsibility for their own future and making this a top priority.”

But you don’t have to go it alone.  At Korving & Company we are investment experts.  And we’re fiduciaries which mean that we put your interests ahead of our own.

Contact us for an appointment.

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How much annual retirement income will you have?

Most people believe that their home is their most expensive thing they’ll ever pay for.  They’re wrong.  The most expensive thing people ever pay for is retirement. And they’ll pay for it after they quit working.

That’s why it’s important to have a clear idea of what you’re getting into before you decide to tell your employer that you’re leaving.

The typical retiree’s sources of income include Social Security.  They may have a pension, although fewer companies are offering them.  If there is a gap between those sources of income and their spending plans, the difference is made up by using their retirement savings.

Running out of money is the single biggest concern of retirees.  The big question is how long we will live and the amount we can draw from our savings before they are depleted.

For simplicity, let’s assume: You’re ready to retire today and plan to have your retirement savings last 25 years. You’ve moved your savings into investments that you believe are appropriate for your retirement portfolio. The investments will provide a constant 6% annual return. You’ll withdraw the same amount at the end of each year.

If you saved this amount Here’s how much you could withdraw annually for 25 years
$100,000  $7,823
$200,000 $14,645
$300,000 $23,468
$400,000 $31,291
$500,000 $39,113
$600,000 $46,936
$700,000 $54,759
$800,000 $62,581
$900,000 $70,404
$1,000,000 $78,227

Keep in mind that these examples don’t include factors such as inflation and volatility that can have a big impact on your purchasing power and account value.

For example, if inflation were 4% a year, a withdrawal of $31,291 25 years from now would only be worth $11,738 in today’s dollars.

Investment losses would decrease your account’s growth potential in subsequent years. To account for these factors, you might need to save even more.

Many experts estimate that you’ll need 80% or more of your final annual salary each year in retirement. Social Security may only provide around 40% of what you need. And don’t forget that retirees typically have different types of expenses compared to people still in the workforce, such as increased health care and travel costs.

This is why planning is so important.  A financial plan will provide you with answers to many of these questions.  Retirees also need to reduce the chances that their portfolio will experience major losses due to market volatility or taking too much risk.  This is where a Registered Investment Advisor who is also a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) can help.  At Korving & Company we prepare retirement plans and, once you approve of your plan, we will manage your retirement assets to give you peace of mind.

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