Category Archives: Uncategorized

Getting a written retirement plan makes you twice as likely to succeed.

A study by the Charles Schwab brokerage firm found that people with a written retirement plan are 60 percent more likely to increase their 401(k) contributions and twice as likely than others to stick to a monthly savings goal. But only 24 percent of Americans have a financial plan in writing, according to the study. Those with a plan are also more likely to have a budget and an emergency fund.

Call us for a customized written retirement plan just for you.

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Don’t Time a Correction

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust:

The stock market is on a tear. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends, and is already up over 4% in 2018. It’s not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued.

We never believed the “sugar high” theory that QE was driving stocks. So, slowly unwinding QE and slowly raising the federal funds rate, as the Fed did in 2017, was never a worry. But, now a truly positive fundamental has changed – the Trump Tax Cut, particularly the long-awaited cut in business tax rates. With it in place, we think our forecast for 3,100 on the S&P 500 by year-end is not only in reach, but could be eclipsed.

Before you consider us overly optimistic, we did not expect the stock market to surge like it has so early in the year. In fact, we would not have been surprised if the market experienced a correction after the tax cut. There’s an old saying; “buy on rumor, sell on fact.” So, with tax cuts approaching, optimism could build, but once they became law, the market would be left hanging for better news.

We would never forecast a correction, because we’re not traders. We’re investors. Anyone lucky enough to pick the beginning of a bear market never knows exactly when to get back in. In 2016, it happened twice and we know many investors are still bandaging up their wounds from being whipsawed.

The market got off to a terrible start in 2016, one of the worst in years. The pouting pundits were talking recession and bear market, only to experience a head-snapping rebound. Then, during the Brexit vote, the stock market fell 5% in two days – which was seen as another indicator of recession. But, it turned out to be a great buying opportunity, like every sell-off since March 2009.

The better strategy for most investors is don’t sell. Some sort of correction is inevitable but no one knows for sure when it will happen and few have the discipline to take advantage of the situation.

This is particularly true when risks to the economy remain low and the stock market is undervalued, which is exactly how we see the world today.

Earnings are strong (even with charge-offs related to tax reform), and according to Factset, since the tax law passed analysts have lifted 2018 profit estimates more rapidly than at any time in the past decade. Even the political opponents of the tax cuts are saying it will likely lift economic growth for at least the next couple of years.

Continuing unemployment claims are the lowest since 1973, payrolls are still growing at a robust pace, and wages are growing faster for workers at the lower end of the income spectrum than the top. Auto sales are trending down, but home building has much further to grow to keep up with population growth and the inevitable need to scrap older homes. Consumer debts remain very low relative to assets, while financial obligations are less than average relative to incomes.

In addition, monetary policy isn’t remotely tight and there is evidence that the velocity of money is picking up. Banks are in solid financial shape, and deregulation is going to increase their willingness to take more lending risk. The fiscal policy pendulum has swung and the U.S. is not about to embark on a series of new Great Society-style social programs. In fact, some fiscal discipline on the entitlement side of the fiscal ledger may finally be imposed.

Bottom line: This is not a recipe for recession.

It’s true, rising protectionism remains a possibility, but we think there’s going to be much more smoke than fire on this issue, and that deals will be cut to keep the good parts of NAFTA in place.

Put it all together, and we think the stock market, is set for much higher highs in 2018. If you’re brave enough to attempt trading the inevitable ups and downs of markets, more power to you, but as hedge fund performance shows, even the so-called pros have a hard time doing this. Stay bullish!

 

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The Trouble with 401(k) Plans

assets.sourcemedia.com

The 401(k) plan is now the primary retirement plan for employees in the private sector and Ted Benna isn’t happy.  Benna is regarded as the “father” of the 401(k) plan but now he calls his child a “monster.”

There are several problems modern with 401(k) type plans.

  1. They are too complicated. The typical 401(k) plan has dozens of investment options. These are often included to satisfy government regulatory demands for broad diversification.  For the plan sponsor, who has a fiduciary responsibility, more is better.  However, for the typical worker, this just creates confusion.  He or she is not an expert in portfolio construction.  Investment choices are often made when an employee gets a new job and there are other things that are more pressing than creating the perfect portfolio.  Which leads to the second problem.
  1. Employees are given too little information. Along with a list of funds available to the employee, the primary information provided is the past performance of the funds in the plan.  However, we are constantly reminded that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  But if past performance is the main thing that the employee goes by, he or she will often invest in high-flying funds that are likely to expose them to the highest risk, setting them up for losses when the market turns.
  1. There are no in-house financial experts available to employees. Employee benefits departments are not equipped to provide guidance to their employees; that’s not their function.  In fact, they are discouraged from providing any information beyond the list of investment options and on-line links to mutual fund prospectuses.  Doing more exposes the company to liability if the employee becomes unhappy.

What’s the answer?  Until there are major revisions to 401(k) plans, it’s up to the employee to get help.  One answer is to meet with a financial advisor – an RIA – who is able and willing to accept the responsibility of providing advice and creating an appropriate portfolio using the options available in the plan.  There will probably be a fee associated with this advice, but the result should be a portfolio that reflects the employee’s financial goals and risk tolerance.

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Types of mutual funds: passive vs. active

A passive mutual fund invests in a portfolio that mirrors the component of a market index. For example, an S&P 500 index fund is invested in the 500 stocks of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. There is no attempt made to try to determine which stocks are expected to do well and which are not.

Actively managed funds are managed by an individual manager, co-managers, or a team of managers. The mangers try to buy stocks that they think will outperform the market.

The costs associated with passive investing are lower than the costs of active management. Active managers attempt to justify their higher costs by doing better in either up or down markets.

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Thoughts From Around the Investment World

We thought that our readers would be interested in reading the thoughts of some of the leading money management companies. We get information from these companies on a regular basis, and wanted to start passing some of it along. Today we look at the view from the money management shop INVESCO.

Thoughts on the global economy:

U.S. money and credit markets will be on the path toward normalization after seven years of abnormally low rates. This is a sign that, despite the weakness in other developed and emerging economies, the U.S. is back on the road to normal growth.

On U.S. Growth Stocks

As we look forward, considering today’s evidence, we believe the bull market will continue, but is likely moving into later stages. As sales continue to grow, profit margins remain high, and valuation growth slows, annual equity market returns in the mid-to-high single digits seem more likely than outsized gains.

We’ll bring you more commentary from major investment firms on a regular basis. Feel free to contact us with your own questions.

Note: We are passing this information along for educational purposes only; it is not an endorsement of the profiled company or their views.

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What the tortoise knows about financial security.

Remember the race between the tortoise and the hare? The tortoise won because he kept plugging along while the hare took a nap. Everyone would like to get rich quick; it’s the reason that people buy lottery tickets. But the chances of actually striking it rich are astronomical.

The way to get financially well-off is within the reach of almost anyone, even people who start out poor. What it takes is following a few simple rules.

  • Avoid destructive behavior.
  • Get an education and acquire a skill.
  • Spend less than you earn.
  • Start saving early.

The temptation to parlay a small bundle of cash into a fortune is what gets most people into trouble. Consistent saving over time is much more likely to pay off than strategies such as timing the market. Risk-the-farm investing strategies have a high probability of failure, but saving and prudent investing always wins.

Getting rich slowly is the primary way that most people achieve their financial dreams. The advantage of saving 10% or more of your income cannot be overemphasized. Do that and then let compounding go to work for you.

Compounding does a lot of the heavy lifting for investors. But it needs time to work. That means starting the process as early as possible and staying with it as long as possible. Waiting until you’re in your 40s or 50s means that you have given up twenty to thirty years of financial growth that you will never get back.

Want to have a million dollars by the time you’re 65? If you begin when you’re 25 with $25,000, save $3000 a year and invest the money to get a 7% return you’ll have $1 million when you’re 65. Of course as you get older and make more money you’ll be able to increase your savings rate, and end up with more than a million.

Finally, control your emotions or – better yet – hire an investment manager who will help control your emotions for you. Markets don’t go in one direction forever and that’s a good thing to keep in mind when the inevitable correction happens. An investment portfolio that lets you sleep well at night helps to cushion the blow of a decline and avoid the temptation to “bail out” at exactly the wrong time. In fact, investing more when the market’s “on sale” is a way to increase your wealth.

This is New Year‘s Eve; 2016 starts at midnight. It’s a great time to start if you have not done so already.

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Warren Buffett lost money this year.

Even the savviest investor can have a bad year. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is down over 11% in 2015.

The reason for the decline is the declining price of oil and other commodities. Berkshire Hathaway has a big investment in railroads that make much of their money hauling commodities such as oil and coal.

It also has big positions in American Express and IBM which declined 24% and 13% respectively this year.

If you broke even this year you beat the “Wizard of Omaha.”

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How Do I Start Saving and Making My Money Grow?

We contribute to several forums that provide advice to novice investors. One of the most popular questions goes like this:

• I’m 28 and will start a new job soon. I have accumulated $10,000 in a savings account and will be able to save an additional $1000/month when I start my new job. I need advice on how to start an investment plan.

It’s a good question. The person asking it usually has some money in the bank and has enough income to add to his or her savings. But because interest rates are so low the savings are not growing. There are three common reasons for not starting an investment program.

Not knowing where to start. The mechanics of opening an investment account can be complicated.

Fear of making a mistake. People work hard for their money and don’t want to lose if because they made some rookie error.

Not knowing who to trust. Who will provide good, honest advice for you?

Here’s how to begin an investment plan that works for people of all ages.

  • Find a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) who is a fiduciary: who put their clients’ interests ahead of their own and provide unbiased investment guidance. They will help you through the process.
  • Find someone with experience. You don’t want to deal with someone who’s learning with your money.
  • Find someone who is accredited. A CFP™ (Certified Financial Planner) is trained to give advice on all aspects of financial planning.
  • Find someone who does not charge commissions. It eliminates conflicts of interest.
  • Find someone who has a good reputation in the community.

At Korving & Company, we’ve been helping people just like you make better decisions about their money and their lives for thirty years.

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Why is Berkshire Hathaway is not on the “Too Big To Fail” list?

It appears that the Bank of England sent a letter to the U. S. Treasury asking why Berkshire Hathaway is not on the list of “too big to fail” institutions.

If you are on the list it is deemed that you are a financial institutions “whose distress or disorderly failure, because of their size, complexity and systemic interconnectedness, would cause significant disruption to the wider financial system and economic activity.”

MetLife, along with a number of other primary insurers, has sued the U.S. government about it’s designation as an SIFI (‘Systemically Important Financial Institution.”)  Being designated an SIFI brings along with it considerably more regulation.

New regulations under the Dodd-Frank legislation, mandate that financial institutions that fit SIFI qualifications, will have to meet higher capital standards and develop contingency plans for potential future failures.

But here’s something that most people are not aware of: insurance companies often take out insurance against catastrophic losses from other insurance companies.  The companies that insure the insurance companies are called “reinsurers.”  Berkshire Hathaway, run by Warren Buffett, is the largest of these reinsurers in the U.S. and the third largest in the world.

So who is more important to the financial stability of the financial system, retail insurance companies or the big global reinsurance companies that insure the insurers?  To me, the answer seems obvious.

To use your local bank as an example.  If it goes broke (and many have) it’s no big deal because your money is insured by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).  But if the FDIC went broke, that would be a BIG DEAL.  Then no one’s bank deposits would be safe.

Insurance is Berkshire’s most significant business – accounting for 27% of net earnings last year – and providing Warren Buffett with the capital to invest in stocks and acquisitions.  But Warren Buffett has friends in high places which may explain the reason he’s not on “the list.”

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Survivors’ Income

We are frequently asked to help people whose spouses have died to help settle the estate and plan for life as widows or widowers.  One of the big questions that they face is determining what it costs to live as a single instead of a couple and where the income is going to come from.

We wrote a book specifically designed to help answer those questions.

Below is from page 53 of BEFORE I GO – WORKBOOK

Keep in mind that it’s a lot easier to determine the answer to many of these questions ahead of time, while both husband and wife are still living, and access to information about survivors’ pension benefits, social security income and annuity income are easy to determine.

For a copy of BEFORE I GO and BEFORE I GO – WORKBOOK contact us or order it from Amazon.com

My Survivors’ Income:

“GUARANTEED” INCOME
Social Security:         $__________________
Pension income #1: $__________________ Source:_____________________
Pension income #2: $__________________ Source:_____________________
Pension income #3: $__________________ Source:_____________________
Annuity #1:                $__________________ Source:_____________________
Annuity #2:               $__________________ Source:_____________________
Other Guaranteed:   $__________________ Source:_____________________
SUBTOTAL GUARANTEED: $__________________

PORTFOLIO INCOME:
Interest Income:       $__________________ Source:_____________________
Dividend Income:    $__________________ Source:_____________________
Rental Income:         $__________________ Source:_____________________
Business Income:     $__________________ Source:_____________________
Other:                         $__________________ Source:_____________________
Other:                         $__________________ Source:_____________________
SUBTOTAL PORTFOLIO: $__________________
GRAND TOTAL:                   $__________________

 

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