Bill Miller beat the S&P 500 index 15 years in a row as portfolio manager of Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (1991-2005), a record for diversified mutual fund managers. He was interviewed by WealthManagement.com about active vs. passive management.
We have written a number of articles about the mistakes individual investors make. But what about mistakes that financial advisors make? We are, after all, fallible and make errors of judgment. And like all mortals we cannot predict the future.
Here’s Bill Miller’s assessment about traps that financial advisors fall into:
One problem is how they deal with risk. There is a lot more action on perceived risks, exposing clients to risks they aren’t aware of. For example, since the financial crisis people have overweighted bonds and underweighted stocks. People react to market prices rather than understanding that’s a bad thing to do.
Most importantly, most advisors are too short-term oriented, because their clients are too short-term oriented. There’s a focus on market timing, and all of that is mostly useless. The equity market is all about time, not timing. It’s about staying at the table.
Think of the equity market like a casino, except you own it: You’re the house. You get an 8-9 percent annual return. Casinos operate on a lower margin than that and make money. Bad periods are to be expected. If anything, that’s when you want more tables.
We agree. That’s one of the reasons we are choosy about the clients we accept. One of the foremost regrets we have is taking on clients who hired us for the wrong reasons. One substantial client came to us as the tech market was heating up in the late 1990s. He asked us to create a portfolio of tech stocks so that he could participate in the growth of that sector. We accepted that challenge, but it was a mistake. When the tech bubble burst and his portfolio went down and we lost a client. But it taught us a valuable lesson: say no to clients who focus strictly on short-term portfolio performance. Our role is to invest our clients’ serious money for long term goals.
Like Bill Miller, we want to have the odds on our side. We want to be the “house,” not the gambler. The first rule of making money is not to lose it. The second rule is to always observe the first rule.
To determine client and portfolio risk we use sophisticated analytical programs for insight into prospective clients actual risk tolerance. That allows us to match our portfolios to a client’s individual risk tolerance. In times of market exuberance we remind our clients that trees don’t grow to the sky. And in times of market declines we encourage our clients to stay the course, knowing that time in the market is more important than timing the market.