Tag Archives: financial planning

The Public Pension Crisis

Government workers at all levels are likely to have pension plans but there is a big question about the plans’ ability to pay.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 92% percent of full-time government employees like teachers and police officers are eligible for pensions, known as “defined benefit plans.”

According to the BLS about 22% of workers in the private sector have pensions, down from 42% in 1990.  In the private sector, retirement plans are much more likely to be 401(k) plans, known as “defined contribution plans.”  Part of the reason for this is that some large companies, like General Motors, accrued huge pension liabilities over the years that they were unable to pay.

Since the Federal Government can print money, federal employees are not worried.  However, states and municipalities depend on their tax base and can’t print money.  That’s where the problem comes in.  Some estimates claim the unfunded liability of public pension plans exceeded $3 trillion dollars.

According to Governing, the city of Chicago’s has an unfunded pension liability of almost $20,000 per capita.  Other cities are somewhat better off, but no big city has a fully funded pension account.  Dallas and Denver, for example are on the hook for between $8,000 and $9,000 per resident.  It’s difficult to even measure the amount of indebtedness because political leaders really don’t want to discuss it.

The problem has been exacerbated by rate-of-return assumptions that are unrealistic.  Most pension funds assume that their assets will grow at rates of seven to eight percent per year indefinitely, a virtual impossibility in this age of low interest rates and sluggish growth.

What does that mean for public employees?   They may want to cast a wary eye on Puerto Rico and some cities in California who have gone into default.  As a wise man once said, “something that can’t go on forever, won’t.”  A little planning ahead won’t hurt.

Whether you are a public employee or work in the private sector we welcome your inquiries.

 

 

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Retirement statistics

  • 65 – The age at which the average American expects to retire, up from 63 in 2002.
  • 26 – Percentage of baby boomers who expect to retire at age 70 or later.
  • $265,000 – the estimated amount a couple, both age 65, should expect to spend on health care.
  • 22 – Percentage of couples who factor health care costs into retirement.
  • 30 – Percentage of adults born in the 1940s and 1950s who have traditional pension plans.
  • 11 – Percentage of adults born in the 1980s who are expected to have a traditional pension plan.
  • 60 – Percentage of medical expenses that Medicare by itself covers.

If some of these statistics don’t scare you read them again.

For others, we may be able to help.

And read the first three chapters of Before I Go.

 

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Questioner asks: “Should I roll my SEP IRA into a regular IRA or a Roth IRA?”

There are two issues to consider in answering this question.

  1. If you roll a SEP IRA into a regular or rollover IRA, assuming you do it right, there are no taxes to pay and your money will continue to grow tax deferred until you begin taking withdrawals.  At that point you will pay income tax on the withdrawals.
  2. If you decide to roll it into a Roth IRA you will owe income tax on the amount rolled over.  However, the money will then grow tax free since there will be no taxes to pay when you begin taking withdrawals.

If you roll your SEP into a Roth, be sure to know ahead of time how much you will have to pay in taxes and try to avoid using some of the rollover money to pay the tax because it could trigger an early withdrawal penalty – if you are under 59 1/2 .

It’s up to you to decide which option works best for you.  If you are unsure, you may want to consult a financial planner who can model the two strategies and show you which one works better for you.

As always, check with a financial professional who specializes in retirement planning before making a move and check with your accountant or tax advisor to make sure that you know the tax consequences of your decision.

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The financial risks of dementia

dementia-symptoms-and-brain changes

Dementia covers a broad range of mental diseases that cause a gradual decrease in the ability to think and remember.  It often affects a person’s daily functioning and is different from the decline in cognitive abilities that are the usual effects of aging.  The most common type of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease.

About one in ten people get dementia.  It becomes more common with age and it’s estimated that about half of those over age 85 suffer from it in some degree.

As the disease progresses, most people with dementia require a certain amount of skilled care.  Eventually the family will not be able to provide the 24 hour services that the patient requires and they will be placed in a facility designed to provide that care.

According to the NY Times:

On average, the out-of-pocket cost for a patient with dementia was $61,522 — more than 80 percent higher than the cost for someone with heart disease or cancer. The reason is that dementia patients need caregivers to watch them, help with basic activities like eating, dressing and bathing, and provide constant supervision to make sure they do not wander off or harm themselves. None of those costs were covered by Medicare.

For many families, the cost of caring for a dementia patient often “consumed almost their entire household wealth,” said Dr. Amy S. Kelley, a geriatrician at Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai in New York and the lead author of a paper published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

As people age their cognitive abilities deteriorate.  Even before they begin to suffer the effects of dementia, they may become forgetful or lose the ability to focus on their finances.  Obtaining the services of a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) well before this happens – a fiduciary that puts his clients’ interests first – is vital.  And, as people prepare retirement plans, the cost of dementia treatment and care should be one of the things for which they plan.

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Do you have questions about retirement? You’re not alone.

Charles Schwab recently conducted a survey of people saving for retirement and found that saving enough for retirement was the single most force of financial stress in their lives; … greater than job security, credit card debt or meeting monthly expenses.

A new survey from Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. finds that saving enough money for a comfortable retirement is the most common financial stress inducer for people of all ages. The survey also reveals that most people view the 401(k) as a “must-have” workplace benefit and believe they would benefit from professional saving, investment and financial guidance.

Most people who come to see us have concluded that they need professional help.  They have some basic questions and want answers without a sales pitch.

survey_image1

They know that they need to save for retirement but don’t know exactly how.

  • The want to know how much they need to save.
  • They want to know how they should be investing their 401(k) plans.
  • They wonder if they should put money into a Regular IRA or a Roth IRA.
  • They know they need to invest in the market but are concerned about making mistakes.

Only 43 percent know how much money they may need for a comfortable retirement, which is significantly lower than awareness of other important targets in their lives, including ideal credit score (91%), weight (90%) or blood pressure (77%).

“With so many competing obligations and priorities, it’s natural for people to worry about whether they’re saving enough for retirement;” said Steve Anderson, president, Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. “Roughly nine out of ten respondents told us they are relying mostly on themselves to finance retirement. It’s encouraging to see people of all ages taking responsibility for their own future and making this a top priority.”

But you don’t have to go it alone.  At Korving & Company we are investment experts.  And we’re fiduciaries which mean that we put your interests ahead of our own.

Contact us for an appointment.

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How much annual retirement income will you have?

Most people believe that their home is their most expensive thing they’ll ever pay for.  They’re wrong.  The most expensive thing people ever pay for is retirement. And they’ll pay for it after they quit working.

That’s why it’s important to have a clear idea of what you’re getting into before you decide to tell your employer that you’re leaving.

The typical retiree’s sources of income include Social Security.  They may have a pension, although fewer companies are offering them.  If there is a gap between those sources of income and their spending plans, the difference is made up by using their retirement savings.

Running out of money is the single biggest concern of retirees.  The big question is how long we will live and the amount we can draw from our savings before they are depleted.

For simplicity, let’s assume: You’re ready to retire today and plan to have your retirement savings last 25 years. You’ve moved your savings into investments that you believe are appropriate for your retirement portfolio. The investments will provide a constant 6% annual return. You’ll withdraw the same amount at the end of each year.

If you saved this amount Here’s how much you could withdraw annually for 25 years
$100,000  $7,823
$200,000 $14,645
$300,000 $23,468
$400,000 $31,291
$500,000 $39,113
$600,000 $46,936
$700,000 $54,759
$800,000 $62,581
$900,000 $70,404
$1,000,000 $78,227

Keep in mind that these examples don’t include factors such as inflation and volatility that can have a big impact on your purchasing power and account value.

For example, if inflation were 4% a year, a withdrawal of $31,291 25 years from now would only be worth $11,738 in today’s dollars.

Investment losses would decrease your account’s growth potential in subsequent years. To account for these factors, you might need to save even more.

Many experts estimate that you’ll need 80% or more of your final annual salary each year in retirement. Social Security may only provide around 40% of what you need. And don’t forget that retirees typically have different types of expenses compared to people still in the workforce, such as increased health care and travel costs.

This is why planning is so important.  A financial plan will provide you with answers to many of these questions.  Retirees also need to reduce the chances that their portfolio will experience major losses due to market volatility or taking too much risk.  This is where a Registered Investment Advisor who is also a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) can help.  At Korving & Company we prepare retirement plans and, once you approve of your plan, we will manage your retirement assets to give you peace of mind.

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When is the Next Recession?

One of our favorite market analysts, Brian Wesbury – who coined the term “Plow horse Economy” to describe the current economic situation – has been accused of being a “perma-bull” because he had discounted all the predictions of recession over the last 7 1/2 years.  We can understand why people are concerned about recessions because 2008 is still fresh in our minds.  The recovery that began in 2009 has been anemic.  Millions of people have not seen their financial situation improve.

Remember fears about adjustable-rate mortgage re-sets, or the looming wave of foreclosures that would lead to a double-dip recession? Remember the threat of widespread defaults on municipal debt? Remember the hyperinflation that was supposed to come from Quantitative Easing? Or how about the Fiscal Cliff, Sequester, or the federal government shutdown? Or the recession we were supposed to get from higher oil prices…and then from lower oil prices? How about the recession from the looming breakup of the Euro or Grexit or Brexit?

None of these things has brought on the oft-predicted recession.  Wesbury says that at some point a recession will come.  We have not reached the point where fiscal or economic policy has eliminated that possibility.  He mentions several indicators, including truck sales and “core” industrial production as indicators that should be watched.

Meanwhile,

Job growth continues at a healthy clip. Initial unemployment claims have averaged 261,000 over the past four weeks and have been below 300,000 for 80 straight weeks. Consumer debt payments are an unusually low share of income and consumers’ seriously delinquent debts are still dropping.   Wages are accelerating. Home building has risen the past few years even as the homeownership rate has declined, making room for plenty of growth in the years ahead.

Meanwhile, there haven’t been any huge shifts in government policy in the past two years. Yes, policy could be much better, but the pace of bad policies hasn’t shifted into overdrive lately.

In other words, our forecast remains as it has been the past several years, for more Plow Horse economic growth.   But you should never have any doubt that we are constantly on the lookout for something that can change our minds.

While the next recession may or may not be right around the corner, serious investors should be prepared for the eventuality so that when it does arrive, they will be ready.   We invite your inquiries.

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Who do you trust?

The latest issue of Wealth Management magazine dealt with the upcoming election.

One of the more interesting things about our recent presidential election (and it’s a long list) is that the traditional political battle lines have not only moved, they’ve been decimated—broken into such unrecognizable shapes that the head spins.

What the Editor found interesting is that neither candidate projects warm feelings toward Wall Street for different reasons.

For both parties and their supporters, Wall Street, and by extension financial services, is to be viewed with deep suspicion and skepticism.

The editor finds this troubling.  We’re not so sure.  When you turn your financial affairs over to another there has to be a certain level of trust.  However that trust must be reinforced over time and “Wall Street” has done enough damage to the trust that people have placed in it that it deserves to be viewed with suspicion and skepticism.

Trust is generated when promises made are promises kept.   The problem is that too often the promises that the major Wall Street firms have made were deceptive.  Wall Street firms like to pretend that they have the best interests of their clients in mind.  The truth is that the firms view their clients as customers and their brokers as the sales force.  The object is to generate commissions via the sales of products created to generate profits for the firm.  And if it benefits the client, that’s nice but it’s a by-product of the sales effort.

That’s why the growth of independent Registered Investment Advisory firms has been a good thing for people seeking investment advice that they can trust.  RIAs who charge fees for their services are not compensated for selling Wall Street products.  Because they work for their clients, not for Wall Street firms, they do not have divided loyalties.  They are supposed to be fiduciaries, not salesmen.  Not to say that there are no bad apples in the basket, but the vast majority of them will work to earn your trust.

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You Could be Making the Biggest Mistake of Your Life

There are a few things in life you can do that you can’t undo.  You can’t turn back the clock.  Once you jump out of a plane at 15,000 feet, you’re committed to your parachute.  Retirement is another one of those things that is almost impossible to undo.  It’s literally a life-changing event.  So why do so many retire without a plan?

People retiring in their mid-60s will likely spend 20, 30, or more years as a retiree.  Before they make the plunge – “jump out of the plane” – they had better know that they have a parachute that works.

The Baby Boom generation is retiring at the rate of thousands a day and most haven’t planned adequately.  Over the coming decades there will be a lot of changes in their lives.  They will have to spend their time differently.  The cost of living will go up and they may face medical expenses as they grow older.  Their income may not match their expenses and they will need to figure out how to bridge the gap or where to cut back.

A good plan, prepared before you hand in your retirement notice, can take most of these issues into consideration.  If you don’t plan, you could be making the biggest mistake of your life.

Contact us.

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