John Kenneth Galbraith is quoted as saying that “The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
One of the most common questions that we are asked at social functions when people find out that we are in the investment business is “where’s the market headed from here?” It’s an important question, but in the short-term the answer is unknowable.
Barron’s Magazine created a graph that tracked the average of Wall Street’s top strategist’s prediction for the past 15 years versus the actual return for the market. The strategists got it wrong every year. That’s why we really don’t react to the talking heads on the cable news shows and the forecasts in newspapers and magazines. We are not paid to make short-term predictions, we are paid to get our clients a fair return on their money and to avoid major losses that could lead to financial ruin.
Investment decisions are made based on factors that we know. Things such as our clients’ time horizon; the amount of money they have to invest, their tolerance for risk, and their income sources. Then we make sure we are properly diversified. Knowing what you don’t know is as important as knowing what you do know. Guessing is not a strategy and we have no interest in making astrology look respectable.