First Trust predicting the 3Q 2013 GDP growth report expected out later this week. Their predictions:
Consumption: Auto sales were up at a 5% annual rate in Q3, while “real” (inflation-adjusted) retail sales ex-autos were up at a 1.4% rate. But services make up about 2/3 of personal consumption and, on a real basis, they appear to be unchanged. As a result, it looks like real personal consumption of goods and services combined, grew at a 1.3% annual rate in Q3,
Business Investment: Business equipment investment shrank at a 1.5% annual rate in Q3 while commercial building expanded at a 10% pace. Assuming R&D grew at a trend 2.5% rate, overall business investment grew at a 2.3% rate.
Home Building: The housing rebound continued in Q3, growing at about a 6.5% annual rate.
Government: Military spending picked up in Q3 and state/local government construction projects have turned the corner. On net, we estimate real government purchases grew at a 1% rate in Q3.
Trade and Inventories numbers are only available through August rather than the entire quarter. Expect further revisions to follow.
They are calling the economy the “Plow Horse” economy, not winning any races but not dying either.