The news has been co-opted by the partial government shut down with its attendant predictions of economic catastrophe if the government doesn’t re-open all its branches in a few hours. Meanwhile in Realville, First Trust notes:
we’ve still seen the two ISM indices (on manufacturing and services), auto sales, chain-store sales, and two weeks of unemployment claims. None of these reports suggests the economy has broken out either to the upside or the downside from the pattern of Plow Horse growth of the past few years. While real GDP itself probably slowed in Q3 to around 1.5% growth, the economy as a whole looks to be expanding at roughly a 2% annual rate over a two or three quarter average.
The bottom line on the economy right now is that there is no sign the partial shutdown, or anything else for that matter, has knocked it off the same course it’s been on for the past few years. Hopefully, when the government finally opens back up, it’ll do so with a better set of polices, which would help the plow horse pick up his pace.
It’s a different view than we get on the 24/7 cable shows, but it helps to look at reality when those around you are losing their heads.