A lot of business pundits make sensational predictions. When they don’t pan out, they still get invited back to make more predictions because accuracy isn’t their objective; grabbing your attention is. Whether it’s a newsletter, an article in a paper or magazine or the financial news show, the object is to get your attention and to sell you something. We love a good story and the chances are some portion of the audience will buy what’s being sold.
Keep this in mind: we quite often don’t even know the past. How much harder is it to accurately predict the future? Don’t be fooled by a good story even if reinforces our own biases. Thanks to modern technology we are constantly being bombarded to sales pitches to all kinds. Scepticism is more important than ever in an age of omnipresent media.